Hot Lines: Today's best MLB bets
Chicago White Sox at Kansas City Royals (+107, 9)
The White Sox are making their move in the AL Central – and they’re doing it with quality piching.
Chicago has allowed a meager 10 earned runs the past five games and is rapidly closing in on first-place Detroit. The White Sox have played dozens of low-scoring games this year and have an over/under record of 31-47-1 overall and 12-28 at home.
Combine those numbers with Kansas City’s 11-22-2 O/U mark on the road, and this one figures to be a snoozer for the fans hoping to see some early fireworks. Chicago also is 5-4 against the Royals this season, as six of their nine matchups have fallen below the number.
These Sox should leave the Royals hanging out to dry.
Pick: Under 9
Arizona Diamondbacks at Colorado Rockies (-191, 10)
Home or away, the Diamondbacks are incredibly consistent – all they do is lose.
Arizona is just one of two teams in the NL – and one of four in the Majors – to have a losing record both home and on the road. And a trip to Coors Field is not what Arizona needs to turn its season around. The Rockies have the second-best run differential in the NL and are hitting the cover off the ball. Colorado, known for its homer-haven of a field, has used a balance offensive approach this year to score 392 runs entering the weekend, just two behind NL leader Philadelphia.
The two teams split six meetings earlier this year, but the Diamondbacks’ offense has been just as bad as its defense, and this Rockies team is playing much different than the one that started the season poorly.
Pick: Rockies -191
Chicago White Sox at Kansas City Royals (+107, 9)
The White Sox are making their move in the AL Central – and they’re doing it with quality piching.
Chicago has allowed a meager 10 earned runs the past five games and is rapidly closing in on first-place Detroit. The White Sox have played dozens of low-scoring games this year and have an over/under record of 31-47-1 overall and 12-28 at home.
Combine those numbers with Kansas City’s 11-22-2 O/U mark on the road, and this one figures to be a snoozer for the fans hoping to see some early fireworks. Chicago also is 5-4 against the Royals this season, as six of their nine matchups have fallen below the number.
These Sox should leave the Royals hanging out to dry.
Pick: Under 9
Arizona Diamondbacks at Colorado Rockies (-191, 10)
Home or away, the Diamondbacks are incredibly consistent – all they do is lose.
Arizona is just one of two teams in the NL – and one of four in the Majors – to have a losing record both home and on the road. And a trip to Coors Field is not what Arizona needs to turn its season around. The Rockies have the second-best run differential in the NL and are hitting the cover off the ball. Colorado, known for its homer-haven of a field, has used a balance offensive approach this year to score 392 runs entering the weekend, just two behind NL leader Philadelphia.
The two teams split six meetings earlier this year, but the Diamondbacks’ offense has been just as bad as its defense, and this Rockies team is playing much different than the one that started the season poorly.
Pick: Rockies -191
Streaking and Slumping Pitchers
Streaking
Tim Lincecum (San Francisco Giants)
The 25-year-old right-hander appeared to have a hangover from winning the NL Cy Young award to start the season. But after a dominant June, he looks poised to retain his award.
Lincecum failed to pitch at least seven innings only once in six starts last month, allowing a stingy eight earned runs over a staggering 48 2-3 innings. He finished the month 4-1 with a 1.48 ERA, upping his numbers on the year to 8-2 with a 2.37 ERA and a razor-thin 1.07 WHIP (walks + hits over innings pitched).
Houston, you’re going to have a problem.
"It takes some people longer to get ready for a season," Lincecum told the Associated Press. "I feel like I'm kind of getting into that zone right now. Things are coming easier. Mechanics are easier. I'm not thinking too much out there."
Aaron Cook (Colorado Rockies)
The key to Cook’s success last month is pretty obvious: get ground ball outs.
Cook (8-3, 3.77 ERA) has excelled at keeping the ball down, inducing 87 ground ball outs in June – just 19 less than he totaled in the first two months of the season combined.
In his past five starts Cook has yielded no more than one earned run while lasting at least six innings four times. His lone blemish was a 5-3 win over Tampa Bay in Denver in which he gave up all three run in seven innings. If Arizona doesn’t get to him early, the Diamondbacks are going to get grilled by Cook.
Slumping
Jason Berken (Baltimore Orioles)
The good news for Baltimore is that Berken finally has his ERA below a touchdown. But a 6.44 ERA also isn’t anything to stand up and cheer about.
Berken (1-5) is in the midst of a summer swoon, as he was absolutely abused by opposing hitters last month. In five starts he went 0-4 with an 8.51 ERA, allowing at least four earned runs in all but one outing. He averaged fewer than five innings per start and added a hideous 1.78 WHIP.
He’s going to have a devil of a time against the Angels.
"Every outing for me is a learning experience," Berken told the Associated Press. "The last thing I am going to do is sit here and feel sorry for myself. It's tough to pitch in the big leagues."
Vin Mazzaro (Oakland Athletics)
Oakland’s 22-year-old prospect looked phenomenal in his first two outings, yielding no runs in his first 13 2-3 innings in the majors early last month. But big-league lineups have been unkind to him in his past two starts, scoring seven runs on 12 hits over just 11 innings in a pair of loses.
Young pitching, however, has been the way of the Athletics this season, who start four rookies in their rotation. Mazzaro’s task won’t get any easier against the Indians, who can score runs in bunches and are due to break out of a hitting slump.
Streaking
Tim Lincecum (San Francisco Giants)
The 25-year-old right-hander appeared to have a hangover from winning the NL Cy Young award to start the season. But after a dominant June, he looks poised to retain his award.
Lincecum failed to pitch at least seven innings only once in six starts last month, allowing a stingy eight earned runs over a staggering 48 2-3 innings. He finished the month 4-1 with a 1.48 ERA, upping his numbers on the year to 8-2 with a 2.37 ERA and a razor-thin 1.07 WHIP (walks + hits over innings pitched).
Houston, you’re going to have a problem.
"It takes some people longer to get ready for a season," Lincecum told the Associated Press. "I feel like I'm kind of getting into that zone right now. Things are coming easier. Mechanics are easier. I'm not thinking too much out there."
Aaron Cook (Colorado Rockies)
The key to Cook’s success last month is pretty obvious: get ground ball outs.
Cook (8-3, 3.77 ERA) has excelled at keeping the ball down, inducing 87 ground ball outs in June – just 19 less than he totaled in the first two months of the season combined.
In his past five starts Cook has yielded no more than one earned run while lasting at least six innings four times. His lone blemish was a 5-3 win over Tampa Bay in Denver in which he gave up all three run in seven innings. If Arizona doesn’t get to him early, the Diamondbacks are going to get grilled by Cook.
Slumping
Jason Berken (Baltimore Orioles)
The good news for Baltimore is that Berken finally has his ERA below a touchdown. But a 6.44 ERA also isn’t anything to stand up and cheer about.
Berken (1-5) is in the midst of a summer swoon, as he was absolutely abused by opposing hitters last month. In five starts he went 0-4 with an 8.51 ERA, allowing at least four earned runs in all but one outing. He averaged fewer than five innings per start and added a hideous 1.78 WHIP.
He’s going to have a devil of a time against the Angels.
"Every outing for me is a learning experience," Berken told the Associated Press. "The last thing I am going to do is sit here and feel sorry for myself. It's tough to pitch in the big leagues."
Vin Mazzaro (Oakland Athletics)
Oakland’s 22-year-old prospect looked phenomenal in his first two outings, yielding no runs in his first 13 2-3 innings in the majors early last month. But big-league lineups have been unkind to him in his past two starts, scoring seven runs on 12 hits over just 11 innings in a pair of loses.
Young pitching, however, has been the way of the Athletics this season, who start four rookies in their rotation. Mazzaro’s task won’t get any easier against the Indians, who can score runs in bunches and are due to break out of a hitting slump.
MLB Fourth of July Weekend Cheat Sheet
The Fourth of July holiday takes center stage this weekend and with it MLB continues its march toward the All-Star break.
Meanwhile, here’s a quick report of four key games on this weekend’s card. Remember, pitcher records are ‘team start’ results and team matchup records are those from within each series.
Enjoy the games and the fireworks.
NATIONAL LEAGUE
Milwaukee Brewers at Chicago Cubs
Most Recent Series Result: Cubs 10-6 last 16 games (3-3 this season)
Most Recent Series Result at the Site: Cubs 3-2 last five games
Key Day/Month Stat: Cubs 16-4 home Sundays; Brewers 0-4 Sundays
Best Arm in the Series: Cubs’ Dempster 6-1, 3.47 ERA home versus Brewers
Worst Arm in the Series: Cubs’ Zambrano 0-6, 4.67 ERA last six home starts versus Brewers; Brewers’ Looper 1-6, 2.72 ERA career versus Cubs
New York Mets at Philadelphia Phillies
Most Recent Series Result: Mets 11-7 last 18 games (4-3 this season)
Most Recent Series Result at the Site: Mets 5-2 last seven games (1-1 this season)
Key Day/Month Stat: Phillies 15-4 Sundays; Mets 3-11 Sundays
Best Arm in the Series: Santana 6-2, 2.95 ERA career
Worst Arm in the Series: Hamels 0-2, 5.25 ERA last two home starts
AMERICAN LEAGUE
Toronto Blue Jays at New York Yankees
Most Recent Series Result: Yankees 4-2 last six games (2-1 this season)
Most Recent Series Result at the Site: Yankees 10-7 last 17 games
Key Day/Month Stat: Yankees 13-3 Fridays; Blue Jays 4-12 away Fridays
Best Arm in the Series: Blue Jays’ Halladay 16-3, 2.09 ERA last 19 starts
Worst Arm in the Series: Chamberlain 0-2, 4.00 ERA career
Detroit Tigers at Minnesota Twins
Most Recent Series Result: Twins 14-6 last 20 games (4-1 this season)
Most Recent Series Result at the Site: Tigers 9-3 last 12 home (3-0 this season)
Key Day/Month Stat: Twins 12-1 home Fridays; Tigers 4-12 Fridays
Best Arm in the Series: Twins’ Slowey 4-0, 4.57 ERA career starts
Worst Arm in the Series: Tigers’ Jackson 1-3, 6.99 ERA career starts
The Fourth of July holiday takes center stage this weekend and with it MLB continues its march toward the All-Star break.
Meanwhile, here’s a quick report of four key games on this weekend’s card. Remember, pitcher records are ‘team start’ results and team matchup records are those from within each series.
Enjoy the games and the fireworks.
NATIONAL LEAGUE
Milwaukee Brewers at Chicago Cubs
Most Recent Series Result: Cubs 10-6 last 16 games (3-3 this season)
Most Recent Series Result at the Site: Cubs 3-2 last five games
Key Day/Month Stat: Cubs 16-4 home Sundays; Brewers 0-4 Sundays
Best Arm in the Series: Cubs’ Dempster 6-1, 3.47 ERA home versus Brewers
Worst Arm in the Series: Cubs’ Zambrano 0-6, 4.67 ERA last six home starts versus Brewers; Brewers’ Looper 1-6, 2.72 ERA career versus Cubs
New York Mets at Philadelphia Phillies
Most Recent Series Result: Mets 11-7 last 18 games (4-3 this season)
Most Recent Series Result at the Site: Mets 5-2 last seven games (1-1 this season)
Key Day/Month Stat: Phillies 15-4 Sundays; Mets 3-11 Sundays
Best Arm in the Series: Santana 6-2, 2.95 ERA career
Worst Arm in the Series: Hamels 0-2, 5.25 ERA last two home starts
AMERICAN LEAGUE
Toronto Blue Jays at New York Yankees
Most Recent Series Result: Yankees 4-2 last six games (2-1 this season)
Most Recent Series Result at the Site: Yankees 10-7 last 17 games
Key Day/Month Stat: Yankees 13-3 Fridays; Blue Jays 4-12 away Fridays
Best Arm in the Series: Blue Jays’ Halladay 16-3, 2.09 ERA last 19 starts
Worst Arm in the Series: Chamberlain 0-2, 4.00 ERA career
Detroit Tigers at Minnesota Twins
Most Recent Series Result: Twins 14-6 last 20 games (4-1 this season)
Most Recent Series Result at the Site: Tigers 9-3 last 12 home (3-0 this season)
Key Day/Month Stat: Twins 12-1 home Fridays; Tigers 4-12 Fridays
Best Arm in the Series: Twins’ Slowey 4-0, 4.57 ERA career starts
Worst Arm in the Series: Tigers’ Jackson 1-3, 6.99 ERA career starts
Trend Report
1:05 PM
ATLANTA vs. WASHINGTON
Atlanta is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games
Atlanta is 3-6 SU in its last 9 games on the road
Washington is 8-2 SU in its last 10 games when playing at home against Atlanta
Washington is 2-5 SU in its last 7 games when playing Atlanta
1:05 PM
MILWAUKEE vs. CHI CUBS
Milwaukee is 1-4 SU in their last 5 games when playing on the road against Chi Cubs
Milwaukee is 2-5 SU in their last 7 games when playing Chi Cubs
Chi Cubs are 4-1 SU in their last 5 games
Chi Cubs are 5-0 SU in their last 5 games at home
1:05 PM
SEATTLE vs. BOSTON
Seattle is 4-2 SU in its last 6 games on the road
Seattle is 9-4 SU in its last 13 games
Boston is 6-3 SU in its last 9 games when playing Seattle
Boston is 17-6 SU in its last 23 games when playing at home against Seattle
1:05 PM
TORONTO vs. NY YANKEES
Toronto is 6-13 SU in its last 19 games on the road
Toronto is 1-5 SU in its last 6 games
NY Yankees are 5-2 SU in their last 7 games when playing Toronto
NY Yankees are 4-2 SU in their last 6 games when playing at home against Toronto
1:10 PM
CHI WHITE SOX vs. KANSAS CITY
Chi White Sox are 5-0 SU in their last 5 games when playing Kansas City
Chi White Sox are 5-0 SU in their last 5 games when playing on the road against Kansas City
Kansas City is 1-9 SU in its last 10 games at home
Kansas City is 1-4 SU in its last 5 games
1:10 PM
ST. LOUIS vs. CINCINNATI
St. Louis is 4-2 SU in its last 6 games when playing Cincinnati
Cincinnati is 2-4 SU in its last 6 games at home
Cincinnati is 4-2 SU in its last 6 games
4:05 PM
HOUSTON vs. SAN FRANCISCO
Houston is 7-16 SU in its last 23 games when playing on the road against San Francisco
Houston is 6-1 SU in its last 7 games when playing San Francisco
San Francisco is 4-2 SU in its last 6 games
San Francisco is 4-1 SU in its last 5 games at home
4:05 PM
NY METS vs. PHILADELPHIA
NY Mets are 2-6 SU in its last 8 games
NY Mets are 2-5 SU in its last 7 games on the road
Philadelphia is 4-12 SU in its last 16 games
Philadelphia is 1-6 SU in its last 7 games at home
4:10 PM
DETROIT vs. MINNESOTA
Detroit is 7-15 SU in its last 22 games when playing Minnesota
Detroit is 4-9 SU in its last 13 games when playing on the road against Minnesota
Minnesota is 15-8 SU in its last 23 games at home
Minnesota is 2-4 SU in its last 6 games at home
4:10 PM
LA DODGERS vs. SAN DIEGO
LA Dodgers are 5-2 SU in their last 7 games when playing on the road against San Diego
LA Dodgers are 6-1 SU in their last 7 games when playing San Diego
San Diego is 1-6 SU in their last 7 games when playing LA Dodgers
San Diego is 1-4 SU in its last 5 games at home
6:10 PM
PITTSBURGH vs. FLORIDA
Pittsburgh is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games when playing Florida
Pittsburgh is 1-4 SU in its last 5 games on the road
Florida is 8-1 SU in its last 9 games at home
Florida is 8-4 SU in its last 12 games
7:05 PM
OAKLAND vs. CLEVELAND
Oakland is 3-7 SU in its last 10 games on the road
Oakland is 2-7 SU in its last 9 games
Cleveland is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games when playing Oakland
Cleveland is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games when playing at home against Oakland
8:05 PM
TAMPA BAY vs. TEXAS
Tampa Bay is 8-15 SU in its last 23 games when playing on the road against Texas
Tampa Bay is 4-2 SU in its last 6 games on the road
Texas is 6-3 SU in its last 9 games
Texas is 15-8 SU in its last 23 games when playing at home against Tampa Bay
8:10 PM
ARIZONA vs. COLORADO
Arizona is 7-3 SU in its last 10 games when playing on the road against Colorado
Arizona is 1-8 SU in its last 9 games
Colorado is 4-2 SU in its last 6 games when playing Arizona
Colorado is 7-18 SU in its last 25 games when playing Arizona
9:05 PM
BALTIMORE vs. LA ANGELS
Baltimore is 2-4 SU in its last 6 games
Baltimore is 1-4 SU in its last 5 games on the road
LA Angels are 11-4 SU in their last 15 games when playing at home against Baltimore
LA Angels are 4-1 SU in their last 5 games when playing Baltimore
1:05 PM
ATLANTA vs. WASHINGTON
Atlanta is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games
Atlanta is 3-6 SU in its last 9 games on the road
Washington is 8-2 SU in its last 10 games when playing at home against Atlanta
Washington is 2-5 SU in its last 7 games when playing Atlanta
1:05 PM
MILWAUKEE vs. CHI CUBS
Milwaukee is 1-4 SU in their last 5 games when playing on the road against Chi Cubs
Milwaukee is 2-5 SU in their last 7 games when playing Chi Cubs
Chi Cubs are 4-1 SU in their last 5 games
Chi Cubs are 5-0 SU in their last 5 games at home
1:05 PM
SEATTLE vs. BOSTON
Seattle is 4-2 SU in its last 6 games on the road
Seattle is 9-4 SU in its last 13 games
Boston is 6-3 SU in its last 9 games when playing Seattle
Boston is 17-6 SU in its last 23 games when playing at home against Seattle
1:05 PM
TORONTO vs. NY YANKEES
Toronto is 6-13 SU in its last 19 games on the road
Toronto is 1-5 SU in its last 6 games
NY Yankees are 5-2 SU in their last 7 games when playing Toronto
NY Yankees are 4-2 SU in their last 6 games when playing at home against Toronto
1:10 PM
CHI WHITE SOX vs. KANSAS CITY
Chi White Sox are 5-0 SU in their last 5 games when playing Kansas City
Chi White Sox are 5-0 SU in their last 5 games when playing on the road against Kansas City
Kansas City is 1-9 SU in its last 10 games at home
Kansas City is 1-4 SU in its last 5 games
1:10 PM
ST. LOUIS vs. CINCINNATI
St. Louis is 4-2 SU in its last 6 games when playing Cincinnati
Cincinnati is 2-4 SU in its last 6 games at home
Cincinnati is 4-2 SU in its last 6 games
4:05 PM
HOUSTON vs. SAN FRANCISCO
Houston is 7-16 SU in its last 23 games when playing on the road against San Francisco
Houston is 6-1 SU in its last 7 games when playing San Francisco
San Francisco is 4-2 SU in its last 6 games
San Francisco is 4-1 SU in its last 5 games at home
4:05 PM
NY METS vs. PHILADELPHIA
NY Mets are 2-6 SU in its last 8 games
NY Mets are 2-5 SU in its last 7 games on the road
Philadelphia is 4-12 SU in its last 16 games
Philadelphia is 1-6 SU in its last 7 games at home
4:10 PM
DETROIT vs. MINNESOTA
Detroit is 7-15 SU in its last 22 games when playing Minnesota
Detroit is 4-9 SU in its last 13 games when playing on the road against Minnesota
Minnesota is 15-8 SU in its last 23 games at home
Minnesota is 2-4 SU in its last 6 games at home
4:10 PM
LA DODGERS vs. SAN DIEGO
LA Dodgers are 5-2 SU in their last 7 games when playing on the road against San Diego
LA Dodgers are 6-1 SU in their last 7 games when playing San Diego
San Diego is 1-6 SU in their last 7 games when playing LA Dodgers
San Diego is 1-4 SU in its last 5 games at home
6:10 PM
PITTSBURGH vs. FLORIDA
Pittsburgh is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games when playing Florida
Pittsburgh is 1-4 SU in its last 5 games on the road
Florida is 8-1 SU in its last 9 games at home
Florida is 8-4 SU in its last 12 games
7:05 PM
OAKLAND vs. CLEVELAND
Oakland is 3-7 SU in its last 10 games on the road
Oakland is 2-7 SU in its last 9 games
Cleveland is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games when playing Oakland
Cleveland is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games when playing at home against Oakland
8:05 PM
TAMPA BAY vs. TEXAS
Tampa Bay is 8-15 SU in its last 23 games when playing on the road against Texas
Tampa Bay is 4-2 SU in its last 6 games on the road
Texas is 6-3 SU in its last 9 games
Texas is 15-8 SU in its last 23 games when playing at home against Tampa Bay
8:10 PM
ARIZONA vs. COLORADO
Arizona is 7-3 SU in its last 10 games when playing on the road against Colorado
Arizona is 1-8 SU in its last 9 games
Colorado is 4-2 SU in its last 6 games when playing Arizona
Colorado is 7-18 SU in its last 25 games when playing Arizona
9:05 PM
BALTIMORE vs. LA ANGELS
Baltimore is 2-4 SU in its last 6 games
Baltimore is 1-4 SU in its last 5 games on the road
LA Angels are 11-4 SU in their last 15 games when playing at home against Baltimore
LA Angels are 4-1 SU in their last 5 games when playing Baltimore
Bob Harvey
Atlanta Braves (-121)
Sat Jul 4 '09 1:05p
There was much hype about Tommy Hanson when he was in the minors. Since his recall his lived up to the hype and much more.
Hanson hasn’t allowed a run in his past three starts, and he’ll look to remain unbeaten in the big leagues when he takes the hill against the Nationals. The rookie sensation is 4-0 with a 2.48 ERA and he’s beaten all-comers including the Red Sox who he limited to two hits over six shutout innings. Did I mention Hanson was suffering from the flu when he did THAT? The right-hander hasn’t allowed a run in 20 innings a string dating back to June 12th in Baltimore, the site of his first MLB win. I can’t say it enough this guy is the real deal. One last add on Hanson; He’s the first Braves rookie since 1900 to hold his opponents scoreless in three consecutive starts.
The Braves have won five straight and look like they’re a a serious contender in the NL East. They’ve got the pitching and their offense has been going gangbusters even without an injured Nate McClouth. Just seven days ago Atlanta was ranked 26th in the Majors in runs per game but have exploded for 30 runs in their past four games. They got the bats going during a sweep of the Phllies and kept them going last night in a wild 9-8 win over Washington.
If there’s anyone on the Nationals staff who can cool down the Bravos it wold be today’s starter John Lannan. The young lefty enters with a 5-5 record and a 3.45 ERA. He’s 2-2 with a 3.30 ERA in five career starts against the Braves, including 0-1 with a 2.77 ERA this season.
As they showed on Friday night, the Nats are indeed pesky. Whether they can “bug” Hanson much remains to be seen. I’m siding with the hotter pitcher and the hotter team in this D.C. showdown.
Atlanta Braves (-121)
Sat Jul 4 '09 1:05p
There was much hype about Tommy Hanson when he was in the minors. Since his recall his lived up to the hype and much more.
Hanson hasn’t allowed a run in his past three starts, and he’ll look to remain unbeaten in the big leagues when he takes the hill against the Nationals. The rookie sensation is 4-0 with a 2.48 ERA and he’s beaten all-comers including the Red Sox who he limited to two hits over six shutout innings. Did I mention Hanson was suffering from the flu when he did THAT? The right-hander hasn’t allowed a run in 20 innings a string dating back to June 12th in Baltimore, the site of his first MLB win. I can’t say it enough this guy is the real deal. One last add on Hanson; He’s the first Braves rookie since 1900 to hold his opponents scoreless in three consecutive starts.
The Braves have won five straight and look like they’re a a serious contender in the NL East. They’ve got the pitching and their offense has been going gangbusters even without an injured Nate McClouth. Just seven days ago Atlanta was ranked 26th in the Majors in runs per game but have exploded for 30 runs in their past four games. They got the bats going during a sweep of the Phllies and kept them going last night in a wild 9-8 win over Washington.
If there’s anyone on the Nationals staff who can cool down the Bravos it wold be today’s starter John Lannan. The young lefty enters with a 5-5 record and a 3.45 ERA. He’s 2-2 with a 3.30 ERA in five career starts against the Braves, including 0-1 with a 2.77 ERA this season.
As they showed on Friday night, the Nats are indeed pesky. Whether they can “bug” Hanson much remains to be seen. I’m siding with the hotter pitcher and the hotter team in this D.C. showdown.
Craig Trapp
MLB | Jul 04
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. San Diego Padres Los Angeles Dodgers
-150 at BETUS > 8h.
Betting Trends
-Dodgers are 6-1 in Wolfs last 7 starts as a favorite.
-Padres are 0-5 in Geers last 5 starts as an underdog.
-Dodgers are 5-1 in the last 6 meetings.
-Padres are 6-14 in their last 20 overall.
Well the first game back for Manny was a success and today think we will see the same thing. The LAD had struggled to score but yesterday with his return they scored 6 runs. Wolf starts for the LAD today and he has been pretty good lately even though he has not got many wins. In his last 4 he has only gave up 8 runs in 20 innings. His real problem has been run support but think he will get it today. Going to the mound for SD is Geer who has been horrible in his last 10 games. He has given up more than 2 runs in every start except 2 in his last 10. In that time period he has one win and his team has only managed to win in his three of the ten games. Expect him to give up 5 runs minimum today in 4 innings. This one will not be close even put a small wager on run line here!!!
MLB | Jul 04
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. San Diego Padres Los Angeles Dodgers
-150 at BETUS > 8h.
Betting Trends
-Dodgers are 6-1 in Wolfs last 7 starts as a favorite.
-Padres are 0-5 in Geers last 5 starts as an underdog.
-Dodgers are 5-1 in the last 6 meetings.
-Padres are 6-14 in their last 20 overall.
Well the first game back for Manny was a success and today think we will see the same thing. The LAD had struggled to score but yesterday with his return they scored 6 runs. Wolf starts for the LAD today and he has been pretty good lately even though he has not got many wins. In his last 4 he has only gave up 8 runs in 20 innings. His real problem has been run support but think he will get it today. Going to the mound for SD is Geer who has been horrible in his last 10 games. He has given up more than 2 runs in every start except 2 in his last 10. In that time period he has one win and his team has only managed to win in his three of the ten games. Expect him to give up 5 runs minimum today in 4 innings. This one will not be close even put a small wager on run line here!!!
Jim Feist
(977) TAMPA BAY RAYS
(978) TEXAS RANGERS
Take "Over"
Texas is an offensive park and two pitchers take the mound here with "issues." Tampa Bay is tops in baseball in runs scored, while Texas is 10th. Tampa Bay lefty David Price is a top talent, but young and raw, walking 25 in 36 innings, a terrible ratio. He has a 5.60 ERA his last three starts. Texas lefty Derek Holland simply isn't that good, at 1-5 with a 6.20 ERA. Look for an offensive show in Arlington, play the Rays/Rangers Over the total.
(977) TAMPA BAY RAYS
(978) TEXAS RANGERS
Take "Over"
Texas is an offensive park and two pitchers take the mound here with "issues." Tampa Bay is tops in baseball in runs scored, while Texas is 10th. Tampa Bay lefty David Price is a top talent, but young and raw, walking 25 in 36 innings, a terrible ratio. He has a 5.60 ERA his last three starts. Texas lefty Derek Holland simply isn't that good, at 1-5 with a 6.20 ERA. Look for an offensive show in Arlington, play the Rays/Rangers Over the total.
Dave Cokin
(969) TORONTO BLUE JAYS
(970) NEW YORK YANKEES
Take "(969) TORONTO BLUE JAYS"
The Yankees are playing very good ball right now, so it sure isn't easy to lay a price against them. But Chien-Ming Wang remains the weak link on the staff, and even in a respectable last outing he had little sink on his pitches. I think there's a good chance he gets knocked around by the Blue Jays. With Roy Halladay on the hill for Toronto, the road favorite is the opinion in this holiday hookup.
(969) TORONTO BLUE JAYS
(970) NEW YORK YANKEES
Take "(969) TORONTO BLUE JAYS"
The Yankees are playing very good ball right now, so it sure isn't easy to lay a price against them. But Chien-Ming Wang remains the weak link on the staff, and even in a respectable last outing he had little sink on his pitches. I think there's a good chance he gets knocked around by the Blue Jays. With Roy Halladay on the hill for Toronto, the road favorite is the opinion in this holiday hookup.
Cajun Sports MLB 2* Complimentary Selection- Saturday
Date/Time: Saturday July 4 / 1:05PM EST
Sport/Type: MLB / Side
Game: Toronto Blue Jays @ New York Yankees
Graded Selection: 2* Toronto Blue Jays -135
Analysis:
The Blue Jays lost game one of this four-game set with the Yankees 4 to 2 on Friday night and look to rebound with their ace on the bump Saturday afternoon. Toronto will send Roy Halladay to the hill with his 10-2 W/L record and ERA of 2.56 on the season. Halladay is 4-2 W/L on the highway this year with an ERA of 1.88. When he takes the bump versus the Yankees he is 16-5 W/L with an ERA of 2.75 and a WHIP of 1.096. Toronto is 21-7 W/L his last twenty-eight starts versus New York and 10-4 W/L when he takes the mound in Gotham. The Yankees are 9-22 W/L (-16.7) versus an AL starting pitcher whose WHIP is 1.100 or better over the last 3 seasons. New York is also 1-6 W/L their last 7 as home underdogs of 150 or less and 2-8 W/L when Wang is installed as an underdog. Todays starter for New York will be Chen-Ming Wang and he has a record of 1-6 W/L on the season struggling out of the gate with an ERA of 10.06. Unfortunately for the Yankees he is worse at home with a record of 0-2 W/L and an ERA of 13.09. Our Pitcher Efficiency Ratings Index project a closer matchup than one would think with Wang struggling but it stills predicts a Halladay win in the end. Our TPR (Team Performance Ratings) Index signals a win by the Blue Jays as well by 0.95 runs over the host Yankees. Combine these factors and the Blue Jays get the win in Gotham on Saturday afternoon.
Graded Selection: 2* Toronto Blue Jays 4 New York Yankees 2
Date/Time: Saturday July 4 / 1:05PM EST
Sport/Type: MLB / Side
Game: Toronto Blue Jays @ New York Yankees
Graded Selection: 2* Toronto Blue Jays -135
Analysis:
The Blue Jays lost game one of this four-game set with the Yankees 4 to 2 on Friday night and look to rebound with their ace on the bump Saturday afternoon. Toronto will send Roy Halladay to the hill with his 10-2 W/L record and ERA of 2.56 on the season. Halladay is 4-2 W/L on the highway this year with an ERA of 1.88. When he takes the bump versus the Yankees he is 16-5 W/L with an ERA of 2.75 and a WHIP of 1.096. Toronto is 21-7 W/L his last twenty-eight starts versus New York and 10-4 W/L when he takes the mound in Gotham. The Yankees are 9-22 W/L (-16.7) versus an AL starting pitcher whose WHIP is 1.100 or better over the last 3 seasons. New York is also 1-6 W/L their last 7 as home underdogs of 150 or less and 2-8 W/L when Wang is installed as an underdog. Todays starter for New York will be Chen-Ming Wang and he has a record of 1-6 W/L on the season struggling out of the gate with an ERA of 10.06. Unfortunately for the Yankees he is worse at home with a record of 0-2 W/L and an ERA of 13.09. Our Pitcher Efficiency Ratings Index project a closer matchup than one would think with Wang struggling but it stills predicts a Halladay win in the end. Our TPR (Team Performance Ratings) Index signals a win by the Blue Jays as well by 0.95 runs over the host Yankees. Combine these factors and the Blue Jays get the win in Gotham on Saturday afternoon.
Graded Selection: 2* Toronto Blue Jays 4 New York Yankees 2
Marc Lawrence MLB Bonus Play! - Saturday 7/4
Play On: NY Mets w/Nieve vs Moyer
Note: A big battle in the NL East takes place in Philadelphia this afternoon where the Phillies send Jamie Moyer to the mound against Fernando Nieve and the Mets. Nieve has been a pleasnt surprise for the Mets with wins in 3 of his 4 team starts this season. Meanwhile, Moyer is 8-7 in his team starts this season, having lasted more than 6 innings on only one occasion. This is just about the time of the year Moyer begins to show his age. He is just 6-14 in his last 20 team starts on Saturdays and the Phillies are 6-16 at home against righties this season. Look for the Mets to get to Moyer and the Phils here this afternoon.
Play On: NY Mets w/Nieve vs Moyer
Note: A big battle in the NL East takes place in Philadelphia this afternoon where the Phillies send Jamie Moyer to the mound against Fernando Nieve and the Mets. Nieve has been a pleasnt surprise for the Mets with wins in 3 of his 4 team starts this season. Meanwhile, Moyer is 8-7 in his team starts this season, having lasted more than 6 innings on only one occasion. This is just about the time of the year Moyer begins to show his age. He is just 6-14 in his last 20 team starts on Saturdays and the Phillies are 6-16 at home against righties this season. Look for the Mets to get to Moyer and the Phils here this afternoon.
Sports Gambling Hotline, Featured Handicapper
Friday comp play winner on Atlanta to put our Bonus Play run at 18-12 the last 30 days.
For 4th of July, take the underdog Pirates to come through at Florida once again.
Pittsburgh won last night's series opener by a 7-4 score, as the Pirates improved to a perfect 4-0 versus the Marlins this year.
Florida starter Andrew Miller absorbed one of those losses, as Pittsburgh scored 4 off of him in his 5 innings of work back in April, and we like the Bucs to get to him once again tonight.
Pirates starter Zach Duke has pitched well his last 3 trips to the mound, allowing 3 runs or less in all 3 of those starts, but has a 1-2 mark to show for it.
Look for the Pittsburgh bats to give Duke some support in this game, and for Pittsburgh to move their season series mark to 5-0 against the Fish.
Play on Pittsburgh.
2? PITTSBURGH
Friday comp play winner on Atlanta to put our Bonus Play run at 18-12 the last 30 days.
For 4th of July, take the underdog Pirates to come through at Florida once again.
Pittsburgh won last night's series opener by a 7-4 score, as the Pirates improved to a perfect 4-0 versus the Marlins this year.
Florida starter Andrew Miller absorbed one of those losses, as Pittsburgh scored 4 off of him in his 5 innings of work back in April, and we like the Bucs to get to him once again tonight.
Pirates starter Zach Duke has pitched well his last 3 trips to the mound, allowing 3 runs or less in all 3 of those starts, but has a 1-2 mark to show for it.
Look for the Pittsburgh bats to give Duke some support in this game, and for Pittsburgh to move their season series mark to 5-0 against the Fish.
Play on Pittsburgh.
2? PITTSBURGH
#1 Sports
Saturday's free selection:
Los Angeles Angels - 150
Mike Wynn
Bonus Play: MLB
Oakland w/Mazzaro Pk Over Cleveland
Platinum Plays
Free Selection MLB:
CHICAGO WHITE SOX - 120 OVER the Kansas City Royals
Razor Sharp
FREE PICK FOR SATURDAY:
ATLANTA (Hanson) -115 over Washington
Totals4U
Saturday's free selection:
Oakland/Cleveland over 9 1/2
Big Time
Free Selection
OAKLAND / CLEVELAND OVER 9
Computer Sports
SATURDAY FREE WINNER!!
PHILLY-140
Nevada Sharpshooter
Free Selection MLB
Detroit pk over Minnesota
Huddle Up Sports
Free Selection
Oakland/Cleveland over 9
Dr. Vegas
FREE Saturday Selection
Angels -150 over Baltimore
TV Hotline
Free Saturday MLB Pick
Toronto -130 over Yankees
Harry Doyle Sports
Free Selection MLB:
Pirates + 120
The Vegas Steam Line
Free Winner for Saturday:
TORONTO (Halladay) -130 over NY Yankees
High Stakes Syndicate
Free Selection for Saturday:
Houston Astros + 180
Pure Lock
Free MLB Play
Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Colorado Rockies
Colorado Rockies -200
Saturday's free selection:
Los Angeles Angels - 150
Mike Wynn
Bonus Play: MLB
Oakland w/Mazzaro Pk Over Cleveland
Platinum Plays
Free Selection MLB:
CHICAGO WHITE SOX - 120 OVER the Kansas City Royals
Razor Sharp
FREE PICK FOR SATURDAY:
ATLANTA (Hanson) -115 over Washington
Totals4U
Saturday's free selection:
Oakland/Cleveland over 9 1/2
Big Time
Free Selection
OAKLAND / CLEVELAND OVER 9
Computer Sports
SATURDAY FREE WINNER!!
PHILLY-140
Nevada Sharpshooter
Free Selection MLB
Detroit pk over Minnesota
Huddle Up Sports
Free Selection
Oakland/Cleveland over 9
Dr. Vegas
FREE Saturday Selection
Angels -150 over Baltimore
TV Hotline
Free Saturday MLB Pick
Toronto -130 over Yankees
Harry Doyle Sports
Free Selection MLB:
Pirates + 120
The Vegas Steam Line
Free Winner for Saturday:
TORONTO (Halladay) -130 over NY Yankees
High Stakes Syndicate
Free Selection for Saturday:
Houston Astros + 180
Pure Lock
Free MLB Play
Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Colorado Rockies
Colorado Rockies -200
GOLDEN CONTENDER
Bonus Play
Toronto Blue Jays vs. New York Yankees
New York Yankees +116
On Saturday the 4 th of July the comp play is the Ny.Yankees game970 at 1:05 eastern.The Yanks are a nice dog play here due to the fact their facing R.Halladay today.I have a nice system that plays against road favorites that applies to this game.The system is 13-23 with a return of investement of over 25%.What we want to do is play against certain road favorites off a road dog loss of 2+ runs if they scored 2 runs or less and the opponent scored 4 runs or less and both teams had 5+ hits.These road favs are 10 games under 500.Always a good idea to fade a favorite under those circumstances.The Yankees average 5.7 runs per game in day time affairs and have a much improved C.M.Wang pitching today.The Jays have Halladay making his second start back from the disabled list today.This is his first start in the Yanks new park.Like J.Santanna found out earlier in the year,even the laziest of fly balls make it out of this park.With Halladay a fly ball pitcher,he may give up some runs here.Lets try the Yanks today.The 4TH OF JULY SPECIAL package is still in effect and were coming off a solid Friday night cashing a big 5 unit play.I have a huge 21-2 SYSTEM SIDE that wins by almost 3 runs per game.Jump on this big winner now!
Back the Yanks as the comp play.
Bonus Play
Toronto Blue Jays vs. New York Yankees
New York Yankees +116
On Saturday the 4 th of July the comp play is the Ny.Yankees game970 at 1:05 eastern.The Yanks are a nice dog play here due to the fact their facing R.Halladay today.I have a nice system that plays against road favorites that applies to this game.The system is 13-23 with a return of investement of over 25%.What we want to do is play against certain road favorites off a road dog loss of 2+ runs if they scored 2 runs or less and the opponent scored 4 runs or less and both teams had 5+ hits.These road favs are 10 games under 500.Always a good idea to fade a favorite under those circumstances.The Yankees average 5.7 runs per game in day time affairs and have a much improved C.M.Wang pitching today.The Jays have Halladay making his second start back from the disabled list today.This is his first start in the Yanks new park.Like J.Santanna found out earlier in the year,even the laziest of fly balls make it out of this park.With Halladay a fly ball pitcher,he may give up some runs here.Lets try the Yanks today.The 4TH OF JULY SPECIAL package is still in effect and were coming off a solid Friday night cashing a big 5 unit play.I have a huge 21-2 SYSTEM SIDE that wins by almost 3 runs per game.Jump on this big winner now!
Back the Yanks as the comp play.
LT Profits
Bonus Play
Boston Red Sox -1.5 (-110)
The Seattle Mariners nipped the Boston Red Sox 7-6 in extra innings last night, but we look for the Red Sox to get a measure of revenge this afternoon.
Even with that defeat last night, Boston is still 25-11 at home this season while outscoring the opposition by an amazing +1.75 runs per game, making the Run Line always worth a peek when they play at Fenway Park. Their starter Brad Penny has now allowed three runs or less in four straight starts and seven of his last eight, and he has tossed 11 scoreless innings while allowing only nine hits in his last two starts here at home.
Meanwhile, Garrett Olson has been as erratic in his first year with the Mariners as he was with the Baltimore Orioles, as he has a lofty 6.06 ERA over his last three starts. Olson has never fared well vs. Boston either, as he has yet to post a Quality Start in seven career starts against them, all of which have come in the last two years. He has a horrible 7.71 ERA in those outings, a figure that jumps to a whopping 8.82 in three starts at Fenway.
Finally, Boston has pummeled left-handed pitchers over the last 10 games to the tune of a .312 team average, which makes a multiple-run win even more likely in this spot.
MLB Free Pick: Red Sox -1.5 (-110)
Bonus Play
Boston Red Sox -1.5 (-110)
The Seattle Mariners nipped the Boston Red Sox 7-6 in extra innings last night, but we look for the Red Sox to get a measure of revenge this afternoon.
Even with that defeat last night, Boston is still 25-11 at home this season while outscoring the opposition by an amazing +1.75 runs per game, making the Run Line always worth a peek when they play at Fenway Park. Their starter Brad Penny has now allowed three runs or less in four straight starts and seven of his last eight, and he has tossed 11 scoreless innings while allowing only nine hits in his last two starts here at home.
Meanwhile, Garrett Olson has been as erratic in his first year with the Mariners as he was with the Baltimore Orioles, as he has a lofty 6.06 ERA over his last three starts. Olson has never fared well vs. Boston either, as he has yet to post a Quality Start in seven career starts against them, all of which have come in the last two years. He has a horrible 7.71 ERA in those outings, a figure that jumps to a whopping 8.82 in three starts at Fenway.
Finally, Boston has pummeled left-handed pitchers over the last 10 games to the tune of a .312 team average, which makes a multiple-run win even more likely in this spot.
MLB Free Pick: Red Sox -1.5 (-110)
Big Al McMordie
Bonus Play
It's only fitting on July 4th for the big paleface in Washington to stick it to the Red Man. Put your wampum on the Nationals today against the Atlanta Braves.
Our MLB selection for the Fourth of July is on the Washington Nationals at home in the nation's capital over the Atlanta Braves.
In his last start, Tommy Hanson overcame the flu and led the Braves to a 2-1 victory over the Red Sox. That play was a nice winner for our interleague Game of the Year. But we are going to go against Hanson and the Braves here, and take Nationals lefty John Lannan.
The Braves are a poor 47-71 their last 118 on the road, including 14-22 as a road favorite the last two years. There's no doubt that Hanson is a terrific young pitcher, but Lannan is 2-0 at home in his eight home starts this year, with a solid 2.03 ERA and 1.18 WHIP.
The Nats are also 14-8 their last 22 at home vs. the Braves. Take the home dog on this July 4th holiday.
Free Pick: Nationals +113
Bonus Play
It's only fitting on July 4th for the big paleface in Washington to stick it to the Red Man. Put your wampum on the Nationals today against the Atlanta Braves.
Our MLB selection for the Fourth of July is on the Washington Nationals at home in the nation's capital over the Atlanta Braves.
In his last start, Tommy Hanson overcame the flu and led the Braves to a 2-1 victory over the Red Sox. That play was a nice winner for our interleague Game of the Year. But we are going to go against Hanson and the Braves here, and take Nationals lefty John Lannan.
The Braves are a poor 47-71 their last 118 on the road, including 14-22 as a road favorite the last two years. There's no doubt that Hanson is a terrific young pitcher, but Lannan is 2-0 at home in his eight home starts this year, with a solid 2.03 ERA and 1.18 WHIP.
The Nats are also 14-8 their last 22 at home vs. the Braves. Take the home dog on this July 4th holiday.
Free Pick: Nationals +113
Joe Freda - 07/04/2009
The holiday weekend kicks off a lot of great horse racing ahead this season, with Jersey's Monmouth Park holding the UN Handicap with Presious Passion part of the field.
July 4 is always one of the biggest racing days of the year and truly the “starting gate” of some great racing action for the summer. If you have been getting barbequed on baseball bets while you wait for football to start, be sure to leave some of that bankroll aside for some horse racing wagers during the next couple of months.
Saturday’s action for July 4 is headlined by the United Nations Handicap at Monmouth Park. I have thoughts on that race, as well as Belmont Park’s Suburban Handicap and the Firecracker Handicap at Churchill Downs. Plenty of good undercard races on these cards as well, but I will stick to thoughts on the big money today with my top three choices in each.
Monmouth Park’s United Nation Handicap has a field of 9 going 1-3/8 miles on the turf at the Jersey Shore:
#7 Presious Passion is a solid choice to win this one as he just came off a winner by a nose on the same turf last month at 1-1/8 miles. No worse than a second place finish all year certainly earns respect of the betting public and Trujillo has been aboard for that entire run. He will also be carrying a couple of pounds less than those recent races and should be able to pull out another big time speed figure like the 101 in two of his last three races. Presious Passion could go off at less than the morning line of 9-2 odds, but I feel this is still enough value to take him.
#2 Strike A Deal has tossed in a couple of clunkers lately but at 8-1 odds is worth including among my top three choices here. This horse finished in second place when running in last year’s United Nations Handicap when the turf was yielding and should be just as competitive in this one. This will be the third race after a long layoff and as the saying goes – third time could be the charm here. It is all just a question of regaining form from the past and at 8-1 or higher, I will take the chance that it happens.
#9 Better Talk Now has not had a victory recently but has a lot of experience in this annual race and just hit the board in the Manhattan Handicap at Belmont Park going 1-1/4 miles on the turf. At Belmont, Better Talk Now hit his highest speed figure of 101 since nearly a year ago showing the kind of form that got him in second and third place finishes last summer. Despite having the worst post in the race, this could be a more favorable spot here and should be able to finish in the money again with a nice closing punch.
Belmont Park’s Suburban Handicap is 1-1/4 miles on the dirt and a field of 10 hit the track for this one:
#2 Dry Martini has Edgar Prado aboard and comes off a solid effort two months ago winning at 1-1/8 miles here at Belmont. Although this horse has not hit a 100 or higher for a speed figure as others in the race have, I feel this is a nice choice at 6-1 morning line odds for trainer Barclay Tagg. A two month layoff might concern some, but having a good trainer makes up for that. Dry Martini has had a consistent closing kick in lots of recent races and with Prado aboard, he will know when to make his move for the winner’s circle here.
#1 Finallymadeit is my biggest longshot choice of the day at 20-1 morning line odds. Although fading badly in the Stephen Foster Handicap last month, this horse has won two of his last four races with both being long distances. Back in May a victory in the Memorial Day Handicap garnered a wire-to-wire 104 speed figure, and 116 pounds will also be the lowest weight that Finallymadeit has had to carry all year. Although not the most consistent horse of the bunch, at 20-1 odds I certainly feel there is more than enough there to take a chance for the big payday.
#8 Cool Coal Man has a strong trainer-jockey combination here with Nick Zito and John Velazquez making him worth taking a serious look at. With this horse’s last race being a strong five length win at 1-1/16 miles, the odds will not be the highest here but the morning line of 6-1 is still an overlay in my book. Prior to that victory, two solid second place finishes occurred for Cool Coal Man – including one with Velazquez aboard. Speed figures of 103 and 106 led this horse to victory twice this year and the right trip can make it happen again on Saturday.
The Firecracker Handicap at Churchill Downs is a one mile turf race with a field of 8:
#1 Inca King is my top choice here and some good value at an 8-1 morning line. A beaten favorite in his last two races, trainer Steven Asmussen is still stepping on the gas pedal here and is hoping for a victory like last year when Inca King stayed in front wire to wire on the Churchill turf at 1-1/16 miles. This horse likes the turf at Churchill as he has the third most starts on the surface and track, including a total of three victories. Inca King will also be carrying five pounds less than his last two races and eight pounds less than the favorite, Thorn Song.
#5 Mr. Sidney had a horrible race on the dirt at Belmont last month, but is back on the turf in this one looking for a score. Kent Desormeaux has enjoyed three recent victories aboard Mr. Sidney and could be finding the winner’s circle here again. Trainer Bill Mott has tried to keep the competition level fairly high for this horse and looks to repeat the one mile turf win he produced at Keeneland in the Maker’s Mark here on Saturday. Although the 4-1 odds here are low enough to consider passing, I feel it is a good enough price for me in a smaller 8 horse field like this and to back Mr. Sidney at the betting windows among my top three choices in the Firecracker.
#6 Passager has had three straight speed figures of 100 and is a force to be reckoned with here despite not having won a race yet this year. This horse was a strong contender when running in several races over in France and may finally have the right spot for a victory in the US since changing continents in February. In the Maker’s Mark at Keeneland, only Mr. Sidney was able to beat Passager and this rematch should find both of them hitting the board once again. Passager has also not had great trips in several recent races and has to go somewhat wide on several occasions, but at a morning line of 8-1 odds, I will take the chance a good one comes here.
The holiday weekend kicks off a lot of great horse racing ahead this season, with Jersey's Monmouth Park holding the UN Handicap with Presious Passion part of the field.
July 4 is always one of the biggest racing days of the year and truly the “starting gate” of some great racing action for the summer. If you have been getting barbequed on baseball bets while you wait for football to start, be sure to leave some of that bankroll aside for some horse racing wagers during the next couple of months.
Saturday’s action for July 4 is headlined by the United Nations Handicap at Monmouth Park. I have thoughts on that race, as well as Belmont Park’s Suburban Handicap and the Firecracker Handicap at Churchill Downs. Plenty of good undercard races on these cards as well, but I will stick to thoughts on the big money today with my top three choices in each.
Monmouth Park’s United Nation Handicap has a field of 9 going 1-3/8 miles on the turf at the Jersey Shore:
#7 Presious Passion is a solid choice to win this one as he just came off a winner by a nose on the same turf last month at 1-1/8 miles. No worse than a second place finish all year certainly earns respect of the betting public and Trujillo has been aboard for that entire run. He will also be carrying a couple of pounds less than those recent races and should be able to pull out another big time speed figure like the 101 in two of his last three races. Presious Passion could go off at less than the morning line of 9-2 odds, but I feel this is still enough value to take him.
#2 Strike A Deal has tossed in a couple of clunkers lately but at 8-1 odds is worth including among my top three choices here. This horse finished in second place when running in last year’s United Nations Handicap when the turf was yielding and should be just as competitive in this one. This will be the third race after a long layoff and as the saying goes – third time could be the charm here. It is all just a question of regaining form from the past and at 8-1 or higher, I will take the chance that it happens.
#9 Better Talk Now has not had a victory recently but has a lot of experience in this annual race and just hit the board in the Manhattan Handicap at Belmont Park going 1-1/4 miles on the turf. At Belmont, Better Talk Now hit his highest speed figure of 101 since nearly a year ago showing the kind of form that got him in second and third place finishes last summer. Despite having the worst post in the race, this could be a more favorable spot here and should be able to finish in the money again with a nice closing punch.
Belmont Park’s Suburban Handicap is 1-1/4 miles on the dirt and a field of 10 hit the track for this one:
#2 Dry Martini has Edgar Prado aboard and comes off a solid effort two months ago winning at 1-1/8 miles here at Belmont. Although this horse has not hit a 100 or higher for a speed figure as others in the race have, I feel this is a nice choice at 6-1 morning line odds for trainer Barclay Tagg. A two month layoff might concern some, but having a good trainer makes up for that. Dry Martini has had a consistent closing kick in lots of recent races and with Prado aboard, he will know when to make his move for the winner’s circle here.
#1 Finallymadeit is my biggest longshot choice of the day at 20-1 morning line odds. Although fading badly in the Stephen Foster Handicap last month, this horse has won two of his last four races with both being long distances. Back in May a victory in the Memorial Day Handicap garnered a wire-to-wire 104 speed figure, and 116 pounds will also be the lowest weight that Finallymadeit has had to carry all year. Although not the most consistent horse of the bunch, at 20-1 odds I certainly feel there is more than enough there to take a chance for the big payday.
#8 Cool Coal Man has a strong trainer-jockey combination here with Nick Zito and John Velazquez making him worth taking a serious look at. With this horse’s last race being a strong five length win at 1-1/16 miles, the odds will not be the highest here but the morning line of 6-1 is still an overlay in my book. Prior to that victory, two solid second place finishes occurred for Cool Coal Man – including one with Velazquez aboard. Speed figures of 103 and 106 led this horse to victory twice this year and the right trip can make it happen again on Saturday.
The Firecracker Handicap at Churchill Downs is a one mile turf race with a field of 8:
#1 Inca King is my top choice here and some good value at an 8-1 morning line. A beaten favorite in his last two races, trainer Steven Asmussen is still stepping on the gas pedal here and is hoping for a victory like last year when Inca King stayed in front wire to wire on the Churchill turf at 1-1/16 miles. This horse likes the turf at Churchill as he has the third most starts on the surface and track, including a total of three victories. Inca King will also be carrying five pounds less than his last two races and eight pounds less than the favorite, Thorn Song.
#5 Mr. Sidney had a horrible race on the dirt at Belmont last month, but is back on the turf in this one looking for a score. Kent Desormeaux has enjoyed three recent victories aboard Mr. Sidney and could be finding the winner’s circle here again. Trainer Bill Mott has tried to keep the competition level fairly high for this horse and looks to repeat the one mile turf win he produced at Keeneland in the Maker’s Mark here on Saturday. Although the 4-1 odds here are low enough to consider passing, I feel it is a good enough price for me in a smaller 8 horse field like this and to back Mr. Sidney at the betting windows among my top three choices in the Firecracker.
#6 Passager has had three straight speed figures of 100 and is a force to be reckoned with here despite not having won a race yet this year. This horse was a strong contender when running in several races over in France and may finally have the right spot for a victory in the US since changing continents in February. In the Maker’s Mark at Keeneland, only Mr. Sidney was able to beat Passager and this rematch should find both of them hitting the board once again. Passager has also not had great trips in several recent races and has to go somewhat wide on several occasions, but at a morning line of 8-1 odds, I will take the chance a good one comes here.
